学术期刊概要
《国际性安全可靠》（International Security）刊登相关现代安全可靠难题的全面性明晰、历史文献详尽的该文。该文牵涉内战与维护和平的现代主轴，和安全可靠的新一代微观，主要包括自然环境、人口数、人道难题、跨行业互联网和新经济控制技术。40多年来，《国际性安全可靠》区分了英国北欧国家安全可靠经济政策的争辩，并为国际性安全可靠外交事务的科学研究制订了日程。2021年该学术期刊的负面影响胺基酸为7.179，在国际性关系的96种学术期刊中排名第一2。
下期产品目录
1
贪官污吏？全球警政与遣返在政治上
Nowhere to Hide? Global Policing and the Politics of Extradition
2
脆弱的变动：当国防控制技术创新受创战力
Dangerous Changes: When Military Innovation Harms Combat Effectiveness
3
英国在南中国海应冒多大信用风险？
How Much Risk Should the United States Run in the South China Sea?
4
小卫星、大数据：揭秘海上安全可靠中的隐蔽因素
Small Satellites, Big Data: Uncovering the Invisible in Maritime Security
该文摘要
贪官污吏？亚洲地区警政与遣返在政治上
作者：Daniel Krcmaric，西北大学在政治上学副教授。
摘要：亚洲地区警政外交事务的牵涉范畴远超出了打击恐怖主义。例如，英国在亚洲地区范围的一系列警政行为：追捕前南斯拉夫战犯、在其国内法院起诉墨西哥毒枭、将一名刚果军阀移交国际性刑事法院甚至入侵他国逮捕通缉嫌疑人。但是，由于国际性警政活动往往发生在“阴影中”，相关科学研究难以开展。其中，作为国际性警政活动中的独特部分，遣返条约的可观察性较为直接。本文使用的原始数据集记录了英国独立以来签署的每一项遣返条约，该数据集表明，亚洲地区性犯罪行为并不会直接带来国际性遣返合作。相反，它是地缘在政治上竞争的延伸。许多北欧国家试图将遣返条约武器化，用以打击身处他国的在政治上对手，而并非仅针对普通罪犯，这使得其中的地缘在政治上因素尤为重要。未来科学研究应该对个人在国际性安全可靠中的作用重新定义，因为许多政府相信，无论是持不同政见者、叛乱者还是恐怖分子，这些个人都可能危及其北欧国家安全可靠。
Global policing efforts go far beyond combatting terrorism. The United States has tracked down war criminals in the former Yugoslavia, prosecuted Mexican drug kingpins in U.S. courts, transferred a Congolese warlord to the International Criminal Court, and even invaded foreign countries to apprehend wanted suspects. Likewise, Chinese police and intelligence forces crisscross the globe engaging in surveillance, abductions, and forced repatriations. But global policing activities are hard to study because they tend to occur “in the shadows.” Extradition treaties—agreements that facilitate the formal surrender of wanted fugitives from one country to another—represent a unique part of the global policing architecture that is directly observable. An original dataset of every extradition treaty that the United States has signed since its independence shows that extradition cooperation is not an automatic response to the globalization of crime. Instead, it is an extension of geopolitical competition. Geopolitical concerns are crucial because many states try to weaponize extradition treaties to target their political opponents living abroad, not just common criminals. Future research should reconceptualize the role of individuals in international security because many governments believe that a single person—whether a dissident, a rebel, or a terrorist—can imperil their national security.
脆弱的变动：当国防控制技术创新受创战力
作者：Kendrick Kuo，英国海军内战学院助理教授。
摘要：普遍的观点认为，控制技术创新可极大地提高一国的国防力量。但是，当一个军队持续增长的安全可靠承诺超过不断减少的安全可靠资源时，国防控制技术创新更可能表现出自我受创的效果。这种巨大的“承诺-资源”鸿沟迫使其在能力控制技术创新上孤注一掷，以实现过于宏大的目标。但与此同时，其新能力的有效性尚未得到验证，既有能力却被蚕食。这一转变更可能带来一种严重后果：每当内战来临，该国仅靠新能力并不能完成任务，而对既有能力的忽视却产生了可供敌方利用的漏洞。为了探讨这一论点的因果逻辑，作者在案例科学研究中对两次世界大战期间英国装甲部队的控制技术创新进行分析，并探究这一控制技术创新对英国陆军二战期间在北非战役中的不佳表现有何负面影响。科学研究结果表明，过于重视新能力有重大信用风险，因为控制技术创新过程中的代价可能与其成果一样重要。对国防控制技术创新的关注不可仅局限于其前景，更要关注其代价。
Prevailing wisdom suggests that innovation dramatically enhances the effectiveness of a states armed forces. But self-defeating innovation is more likely to occur when a military services growing security commitments outstrip shrinking resources. This wide commitment-resource gap pressures the service to make desperate gambles on new capabilities to meet overly ambitious goals while cannibalizing traditional capabilities before beliefs about the effectiveness of new ones are justified. Doing so increases the chances that when wartime comes, the service will discover that the new capability cannot alone accomplish assigned missions, and that neglecting traditional capabilities produces vulnerabilities that the enemy can exploit. To probe this arguments causal logic, a case study examines British armor innovation in the interwar period and its impact on the British Armys poor performance in the North African campaign during World War II. The findings suggest that placing big bets on new capabilities comes with significant risks because what is lost in an innovation process may be as important as what is created. The perils of innovation deserve attention, not just its promises.
英国在南中国海应冒多大信用风险？
作者：M. Taylor Fravel，麻省理工学院在政治上学Arthur and Ruth Sloan教授；Charles L. Glaser，乔治华盛顿大学在政治上学与国际性外交事务教授。
摘要：英国应该花多大精力、冒多大信用风险，在南中国海遏制中国？从一端对中国加大遏制，到另一端对部分南中国海的经济政策收缩，和英国当前在两端之间的中间经济政策，通过对这三个经济政策选项的持续观察，作者捕捉到英国面临的选择。通过分析中国在南中国海的主张和行为，和其对英国利益的负面影响，本文得出的结论是，英国的最佳选择是保持目前的遏制水平。中国在追求其目标时一直持谨慎态度，这使得当前经济政策的信用风险可以接受。由于英国在这一地区的安全可靠利益相当有限，没有必要采取明显更强硬的经济政策，否则这将增加与中国发生高强度内战的信用风险。如果中国未来的行动表明其决心大大增强，即时英国不情愿，也应结束其国防遏制，对南中国海采取部分收缩经济政策。
How strenuously, and at what risk, should the United States resist Chinas efforts to dominate the South China Sea? An identification of three options along a continuum—from increased resistance to Chinas assertive policies on one end to a partial South China Sea retrenchment on the other, with current U.S. policy in the middle—captures the choices facing the United States. An analysis of Chinas claims and behavior in the South China Sea and of the threat that China poses to U.S. interests concludes that the United States best option is to maintain its current level of resistance to Chinas efforts to dominate the South China Sea. China has been cautious in pursuing its goals, which makes the risks of current policy acceptable. Because U.S. security interests are quite limited, a significantly firmer policy, which would generate an increased risk of a high-intensity war with China, is unwarranted. If future Chinas actions indicate its determination has significantly increased, the United State should, reluctantly, end its military resistance to Chinese pursuit of peacetime control of the South China Sea and adopt a policy of partial South China Sea retrenchment.
小卫星、大数据：揭秘海上安全可靠中的隐蔽因素
作者：Saadia M. Pekkanen，华盛顿大学国际性科学研究教授；Setsuko Aoki，庆应大学法学院法学教授；John Mittleman，英国海军科学研究实验室海洋领域意识高级顾问。
摘要：来自小卫星的数据正与高速度、大体量的计算分析迅速融合。“小卫星、大数据” (SSBD) 改变了决策者持续关注和应对一系列国际性安全可靠挑战的能力。对这些控制技术的分析表明了，它们如何通过对敌对或非法的海洋活动进行检测、分析和归类，为捍卫北欧国家利益和商业利益提供决策支持。如果这些新控制技术使海上活动难以隐匿，军方、执法部门和情报界将如何应对海上威胁？由此出现的相关海上活动的证据和北欧国家安全可靠、商业活动合法性等关切相互交织。对于各国事府和在海上安全可靠、可持续性和法治方面有既得利益的商业、学术和非政府部门而言，SSBD控制技术观测和定位不法行为的能力非常重要。但科学研究结果表明，仅靠透明度难以遏制不当行为，也难以改变强国的行为。
Data from small satellites are rapidly converging with high-speed, high-volume computational analytics. “Small satellites, big data” (SSBD) changes the ability of decision-makers to persistently see and address an array of international security challenges. An analysis of these technologies shows how they can support decisions to protect or advance national and commercial interests by detecting, attributing, and classifying harmful, hostile, or unlawful maritime activities. How might the military, law enforcement, and intelligence communities respond to maritime threats if these new technologies eliminate anonymity at sea? The emerging evidence presented on maritime activities is intertwined with national security (e.g., territorial and resource claims, sanctions violations, and terrorist attacks), legal and illicit businesses (e.g., illegal fishing, trafficking, and piracy), and other concerns (e.g., shipping and transit, chokepoints, and environmental damage). The ability of SSBD technologies to observe and catch wrongdoing is important for governments as well as the commercial, academic, and nongovernmental sectors that have vested interests in maritime security, sustainable oceans, and the rule of law at sea. But findings indicate that transparency alone is unlikely to deter misconduct or change the behavior of powerful states.
编译 | 胡富钦
审校 | 李博轩
排版 | 杨凌晶
全》2022年第2期。该文评译内容为公益分享，服务于学术科研教学工作，不代表国事师友观点。
